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Enigmatic Russia making progress despite problems

Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, said Winston Churchill, Britain's World War II Prime Minister. Not much has changed in the world's perception of Russia, even though the press is much freer. The news is dominated by contract killings and poisonings of "enemies of the state."

However, the situation is improving. The old Soviet Union left the new Russia with some advantages, including very high levels of education and social participation by the majority of the population, including women and minorities, secular attitudes, mobile class structure, and better integration of various minorities into mainstream culture, setting Russia far apart from the majority of the so-called developing countries and even some developed nations.

The huge capital region of Moscow has become a bustling, affluent metropolis living on the cutting edge of technology with a per capita income rapidly approaching that of the leading Eurozone economies. A decade and a half after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia is developing a market economy and achieving more consistent economic growth. Russia saw its comparatively developed centrally planned economy contract severely for five years, as the indecisive executive and the legislature dithered over the implementation of reforms and Russia's aging industrial base faced a serious decline.

Now, the country's GDP is soaring, making it the ninth largest economy in the world and the fifth largest in Europe. If the current growth rate is sustained, the country is likely to become the second largest European economy after Germany and the sixth largest in the world in a few years. Industrial military exports, including advanced weapons for China, after undergoing sharp contraction, are now the major non-commodity exports. In recent years, the economy has also been driven by growing internal consumer demand. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia's first slight recovery, showing signs of open-market influence, occurred in 1997. That year, however, the Asian financial crisis resulted in the August depreciation of the ruble. This was followed by a debt default by the government in 1998, and a sharp deterioration in living standards for most of the population, with 1998 marked by recession and intense capitalflight.

The arrest of Russia's wealthiest businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky on charges of fraud and corruption in relation to the large-scale privatizations has not caused most foreign investors to worry about the stability of the Russian economy. Other countries have expressed concerns and worries at the "selective" application of the law against individual businessmen and enterprises, though government actions have been hailed in Russia. The economy started recovering in 1999. The recovery was boosted by the weak ruble, which made imports expensive and boosted local output. Then Russia entered a phase of rapid economic expansion, the GDP growing by an average of 6.7 percent annually in 1999-2005 on the back of higher petroleum prices, a weaker ruble, and increasing service production and industrial output.

The country is presently running a huge trade surplus, which has been helped by protective import barriers, and rampant corruption which ensures that it is almost impossible for foreign and local small and medium sized enterprises to import goods without the help of local specialist import firms. Some import barriers are expected to be abolished after Russia's accession to the WTO.

The recent recovery, made possible due to high world oil prices, along with a renewed government effort in 2000 and 2001 to advance lagging structural reforms, has raised business and investor confidence over Russia's prospects in its second decade of transition. Russia remains heavily dependent on exports of commodities, particularly oil, natural gas, metals, and timber, which account for about 80 percent of exports.

In 2005 Russia exported US$241.3 billion and imported US$98.5 billion. This means that Russia registered a trade surplus of US$142.8 billion in 2005, up about 33% from 2004's foreign trade surplus of US$106.1 billion. By August 17, 2006, Russia's international reserves reached US$277 billion and are projected to grow to US$320 billion by the end of this year and to US$350-450 billion by the end of 2007 -- among the world's highest.

Thanks to high oil prices, Russian oil exports totaled US$117 billion in 2005 while gas exports totaled US$32 billion in the same year. That means that oil and gas made up 60 percent of total Russian exports in 2005. Knowing the importance of oil and gas to the economy, a Stabilization Fund was formed by the government in January 2004. This fund takes in revenues from oil and gas exports and is designed to help offset oil market volatility. This fund was also set up in order to prevent the ruble from appreciating. The Stabilization Fund grew to US$76.6 billion in November 2006.

Russia repaid the bulk of its outstanding debt to the Paris Club of Creditor Nations on August 18-21, 2006. The debt totaled US$1.9 billion as of October 1, compared to US$23.7 billion on July 1.

Some twenty-five of the biggest banks of Russia get entry into Top 1000 banks of the world by The Banker. Many more Russian banks have very high international ratings by Moody's and Fitch, including "investment" level. Encouraging foreign investment is also a major challenge due to the peculiarities of the country. Nevertheless, there has been a significant inflow of capital in recent years from many European investors attracted by cheaper land, labor and higher growth rates than in the rest of Europe.





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